Northern Highlands Lake District
From RAWorkbook
Northern Wisconsin contains a high density of lakes in the landscape and a fairly low density of human habitations. In relatively close proximity to major metropolitan areas, the region attracts many tourists, who come primarily to fish. Increasing numbers of homes built around the lakes, along with increased tourism have altered the lake ecosystems. The people in this system include full- and part-time residents, visitors, and Native Americans. All of whom alter aspects of the ecosystems, through for example, fishing, changing land use, polluting the water, and introduction of non-native species. These activities influence fish populations by modifying habitats, toxics and food base. A number of global or external factors influence the system, including: climate change, regional demographics and economics, and mercury deposition. In an exercise designed to assist with planning and management of the area, a set of scenarios was developed about future development in the area (see http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol7/iss3/art1/). Three of these scenarios of alternative futures were: Walleye Commons, Northwoods.com, and Lake Mosaic.
Walleye Commons In this scenario, climate change led to a warmer environment, greatly decreasing winter tourism. The warmer climate in turn led to emergent pathogens in fish and humans. These diseases made the areas much less desirable (tourists also had other options) which led to a decline in human population. The drop in land value led to purchase by government and non-government groups for conservation. Even so, mercury pollution increased as a result of global warming, leading to health risks associated with consuming fish such as walleye. Native Americans stayed, and developed strategies for harvesting walleye from the clearer, but more disease infected waters.
Northwoods.com The northwoods.com scenario is based on a new University in the area that attracts young people to a low cost, high quality lifestyle. Economic opportunities led to increased human populations, and eventually urbanization resulting in the degradation of aquatic ecosystems. Increased pollution and nutrients caused lakes to become eutrophic, which was followed by a decline in fish stocks. Local policies were implemented to control pollution, but they were both costly and unpopular. The region continued to develop economically, which benefited Native Americans and sustained population growth in the area.
Lake Mosaic In the Lake Mosaic scenario there was an increasingly wealthy population, as many aging baby boomers purchased lake homes for vacations or retirement. Lakeshore development exploded and all of the lakes supported homes. Homeowners organized around their lake to improve conditions for fishing, habitat and recreation. Yet different lake associations wanted different things; some groups wanted more protection of ecological services, others wanted more use. In this scenario, private groups, rather than governments controlled development.
None of these scenarios are predictions about the future, but rather ways of helping to understand aspects of system dynamics by imagining a range of plausible futures and the processes that lead to them. Through being involved in their development the stakeholders involved gained an understanding of how different, broad directions of change might be avoided or encouraged. In qualitative terms, thresholds and alternative regimes are identified through the scenario-building process. Also, building the scenarios was a very useful collaboration technique that helped to build trust and social capital.
